The aggravation of trade confrontation with China has led to a sharp decline in production over the past ten years. The procurement management index reached a critical low of 47.8%, which has been an anti-record since June 2009. Even a hundredth of a percent below 50 indicates a recession. The fall in the index of new export orders below 41% is an alarming signal, indicating a serious recession. Investment Director Peter Bukvar of the Bleakly Advisory Group claims that there is a steady decline in production not only in the United States, but throughout the world.
Recent reports hit the stock markets seriously, talking about an approaching recession. The Dow Jones Index quickly collapsed by two hundred points, which caused a panic among traders. Global trading operations seriously affect the stability of the securities market. The reduction in transactions since July this year confirms the serious concerns of economists about the decline in economic activity. At the same time, there remains cautious optimism for a quick resolution of the crisis thanks to the active intervention of the government.
According to the ISM indices, there has been a serious lag in the performance of new export orders, employment, raw materials, stocks, which inevitably leads to a decrease in the activity of securities market. So far, according to Deutsche Bank chief economist Torsten Spock, there is no end to the slowdown, which is pretty worrying for analysts. A smooth decline may eventually turn into a steep peak, from which it will then be very difficult to exit without serious losses.
Tracking key positions will give an accurate idea of the current state of the market
The new escalation of the trade war between the United States and China does not add any optimism. When President Trump began his work, the country’s economy was more stable. Today a serious recession is clearly outlined.
- One of the important elements that negatively affect the economy, according to Trump, is the high Fed rates.
- For the first time, there has been a sharp decline in the economy over the past three months, according to ISM.
- MUFG Union Bank chief stock economist Chris Rupki advises investors to leave the stock markets as quickly as possible.
«If you want to save your money – run. If you are not indifferent to your own life, run as fast as possible. Get out, or the wave of recession will cover you with the head. Your capital is in great danger. The horizon of prospects is rapidly darkening, and sparkling lightning speaks of an impending storm of unprecedented proportions.»